AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): With the escalation of American pressure on Iranian ports, Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has issued an explicit threat, warning that if the naval blockade continues, shipping routes from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to the Red Sea could be targeted.
Sohail al-Asa, a military and strategic expert, said that the entry of the Bab al-Mandab Strait into the conflict zone would mean transferring the crisis to a geographical area that could plunge the world into a comprehensive economic, political, and security crisis.
He added, "The main danger is the strategic linkage between the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. If Hormuz is considered the main reservoir of the world's oil, gas, and petrochemical products, then Bab al-Mandab is the gateway through which these resources are transferred to Europe and the West."
Paralysis of Global Trade
According to this analysis, the closure of these passages or even the threat to their security will have multiple consequences. The first consequence will be severe disruption to global trade. The closure of Bab al-Mandab would cut off the traditional trade route from East Asia (China, India, and Japan) to Europe via the Mediterranean Sea, forcing ships to take the longer and more costly route around the Cape of Good Hope. The second consequence is an increase in military tension. The United States has three aircraft carriers in the region—the Abraham Lincoln, the Gerald R. Ford, and the George H.W. Bush. In contrast, Iran possesses dozens of islands with military capabilities in the Persian Gulf, giving it important strategic strongholds.
According to analysts, the threat from Iranian forces is not merely a political stance but an indication of the readiness of the unified field axis for action, especially given Iran's extensive coastlines, which enhance its maneuverability and ability to threaten oil tankers.
A Heavy Blow to the Global Economy
Al-Asa further emphasized that the closure of Bab al-Mandab—considered the main gateway to the Red Sea—would deal a heavy blow to the global economy, as international trade would be forced to shift entirely to the Cape of Good Hope route.
This shift would have serious consequences for global supply chains, including a sharp increase in costs, widespread delays in goods delivery, and an unprecedented crisis for trade between East Asia and Europe.
Rules of Engagement and Naval Blockade
Elias Hanna, a military and strategic expert, also analyzed the mechanisms of blockade and the rules of engagement at sea, explaining the geopolitical differences between important waterways.
He described the current American blockade as a form of maritime quarantine based on precise monitoring of Iranian tankers, especially those leaving Kharg Island, which is the export point for approximately 90 percent of Iran's oil, via satellite systems. These vessels may then be stopped and inspected by helicopters, naval special forces, or the Coast Guard.
Is Hormuz More Important than Bab al-Mandab?
Hanna emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz remains a more vital passage than Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal, as it is considered an irreplaceable route for the world's oil, gas, and petrochemical products.
He also said that Iran, within the framework of the unified fields strategy, cooperates with its allied forces in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. However, regarding Yemen, Tehran's role is largely advisory and training-based, with no direct military presence there.
According to him, the Yemenis also have their own independent geopolitical calculations, and decisions regarding Bab al-Mandab are not necessarily made directly by Iran, especially given that the geographical distance of approximately two thousand kilometers between the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait has created different field conditions.
Over the past two years, the armed forces of Yemen, within the framework of confronting Israel and later the United States, have targeted several ships and tankers near Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea.
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